So a little over a month left until we hit the Finals for #SBL2016, I thought I would take a look at ‘The Run Home’ for the Top 10 teams and predict who will finish where as well as a look at each of those ten team’s remaining games in the Regular Season. I have only made it ten as I think it is fairly safe to say that it is curtains for the finals hopes of Goldfields, Mandurah, Lakeside & Kalamunda for 2016…

 

Cockburn Cougars (1^st 16 – 3)

The form team of the League at the moment with a seven game winning streak, Cockburn have taken all before them this season and had it not been for the remarkable loss to the Senators, they would be undefeated at the Cougar Den.

The Cougars Run Home – vs Flames (Win); vs Slammers (Win); @ Stirling (Loss); vs Hawks (Win); vs Giants (Win) @ Mandurah (Win); vs Wolves (Win)

Five of their remaining seven games in Hammy Hill is a major reason why it is damn hard to see the Cougars losing top spot, especially if they can take care of the visiting Wolves in a massive Week 20 clash at The Den. A chance for redemption against Stirling awaits them up in Warwick in Week 17 but aside from those two games, it is hard to see them losing their remaining five games.

Predicted Finish: 1^st 22 – 4

 

Joondalup Wolves (2^nd 15 – 4)

The reigning champs are thereabouts this year, but with player unavailability and question marks over who will coach the team come Finals with Ettridge and Assistant Coach Brennan both expected to be unavailable due to Pre-Olympic commitments with the Rollers, stability and average form away from JBS is definitely a major cause for concern for the Wolfpack and their supporters (Here’s looking at you Setup Crew!)

The Wolves Run Home – @ Kalamunda (Win); vs Eagles (Win); vs Tigers (Win); @ Mandurah (Win); vs Suns (Win); @ Perth (Loss); @ Stirling (Loss)

Four of their remaining games on the road, with danger games being their final two games of the year – both on the road against the Redbacks & Senators respectively. Willo to also pose a major threat to the Wolves current undefeated home record when they head to the Northern Suburbs for what should be a very intriguing Week 17 Clash

Predicted Finish: 2^nd 20 – 6

 

Willetton Tigers (3^rd 14 – 6)

If you had told me at the start of the year that the Tigers would lose Alan Black as their Head Coach half way through the season, and then Stephen would step in in his dad’s absence and not only do well, but in many ways ‘overachieve’ – I would have had a laugh and not given it much more thought. But yet the boys from The Boulevarde are yet again one of the main contenders to be holding Bob aloft in late August with a season that has been a bit yo-yo’ish in parts but they are starting to come good at the right time of the year.

The Tigers Run Home - @ Geraldton (Loss); @ Joondalup (Loss); @ Rockingham (Win); vs Lightning (Win); @ Kalamunda (Win); vs Redbacks (Loss)

Three tough road games plus a huge final game of the season versus traditional rivals Perth will place a lot of pressure on the Tigers stars and even more so their bench. Danger game on the road against Rockingham could very well determine whether or not Willo have home court advantage come the Quarter Finals

Predicted Finish: 5^th 17 – 9

 

Stirling Senators (4^th 14 – 6)

Here lies the team which I believe everyone in the Top Eight should be worried about come Finals time. A list which truly believes in themselves this season and it is that belief along with development of some of their younger stars in Coburn & Litterick as well as valuable contributions from veterans in Bruton & Witt, which is a major reason why I think the Senators could make a huge amount of noise all the way to the Big Dance come late August!

The Senators Run Home – vs Hawks (Win); @ East Perth (Win); vs Cougars (Win); vs Flames (Win); vs Eagles (Win); @ Mandurah (Win)

Danger games at home against Cockburn and Rockingham in consecutive weeks but given their form up at Warwick this year, it’s hard to see the Senators dropping any games for the remainder of the regular season

Predicted Finish: 3^rd 20 – 6 (Lose H2H with Wolves -9)

 

Geraldton Buccaneers (5^th 14 – 7)

I will say this right here and now, if the Buccs can finish in the Top 4 – it is going to take a heck of an effort from any of the other teams in the Top 8 to stop them from making the Grand Final given their current undefeated record at the fortress that is Eighth Street Stadium. Probably the easiest of the run’s home for anyone in the Top 8, and with the mastermind addition of Hussey to an already talented Buccs outfit – Maybe, just maybe… 2016 is the year the Buccs can add another Banner to the rafters up in the Midwest.

The Buccs Run Home – vs Tigers (Win); vs Hawks (Win); vs Eagles (Win); @ Goldfields (Win); vs Lakeside (Win)

Only five games left for the Buccs and with four of those at Eighth St, write-off Gero at your peril is my advice for any other Finals-bound side harbouring Grand Final aspirations!

Predicted Finish: 4^th 19 – 7

 

Rockingham Flames (6^th 12 – 8)

An indifferent season for the Flames, losing what seemed to be winnable games whilst never really finding any consistency throughout the course of the season. Once again led by the Land brothers along with Captain Godfrey, the boys from Rocko will once again be playing Quarter Finals Basketball, but with an expected matchup with Cockburn, Joondalup or Stirling – it is hard to see them making it past that stage of the Finals.

The Flames Run Home - @ Cockburn (Loss); @ Goldfields (Win); @ Stirling (Loss); vs Tigers (Loss); @ Perry Lakes (Win); @ East Perth (Win)

Six games left for the Flames but only one at Home leaves them in very real danger of finishing 7^th or 8^th if the teams below them can string some wins together. Their final two games of the season on the road to the Hawks & Eagles will ultimately determine where they finish.

Predicted Finish: 7^th 15 – 11

 

Perth Redbacks (7^th 11 – 8)

Up until a week ago, you would have said given the Redbacks form of late – they would be a decent chance to finish 5^th or 6^th. Suddenly though their season is up in the air with key injuries to Wagner & Vigor meaning Perth now will have a fight on their hands to try and avoid a Quarter Final matchup with either the Cougars or Wolves without home court advantage.

The Redbacks Run Home – vs Magic (Win); @ Lakeside (Win); @ South West (Win); vs Giants (Win); vs Wolves (Loss); vs Lightning (Win); @ Willetton (Win)

Should only lose one game for the remainder of the season on the proviso they get both Wagner & Vigor back in time for their Week 20 clash with the Tigers. Danger game versus the Slammers down at Eaton could be the deciding factor between 6^th and 7^th for the Spiders

Predicted Finish: 6^th 17 – 9 (Will all depend on H2H if they finish on the same record as the Tigers, although Willetton will carry a +35 advantage into their final game)

 

Perry Lakes Hawks (8^th 8 – 12)

Definitely a season of what could have been for the boys from Floreat, with the untimely injury to Hobbs all but costing them a much higher berth on the League Ladder and now sees them struggling just to fill the final spot in the 8 for the Finals. A current four game losing streak plus an absolutely dismal record away from Headquarters are also major factors in why the Hawks are currently sitting in the position they are in.

The Hawks Run Home - @ Stirling (Loss); vs Slammers (Win); @ Geraldton (Loss); @ Cockburn (Loss); vs Flames (Loss); vs Suns (Win)

Very tough run home for the Hawks with four of their final six games up against sides higher than them on the Ladder. Need to pull off the upset win over Rocko at Home in Week 19 to really solidify their Finals credentials

Predicted Finish: 8^th 10 – 16 (Will win their H2H battle with the Slammers if they can defeat them by more than 5 this weekend)

 

East Perth Eagles (9^th 8 – 12)

It would have been one of the ultimate comebacks, after struggling for the better part of the season – the Eagles signed local products Tom Jervis & Sunday Dech and had an instant form reversal which saw them move back into Finals calculations. But now I am hearing Jervis is done for the season and with it – goes any real hope the Morley-based club have of challenging for that final spot in the Top 8.

The Eagles Run Home – vs Senators (Loss); @ Joondalup (Loss); @ Mandurah (Win); @ Geraldton (Loss); @ Stirling (Loss); vs Flames (Loss)

Even the most optimistic person would admit it’s tough to see East Perth getting too many more wins for the rest of the season, even with Jervis in the side. Only one of their final six games against non-Top 8 teams and even that is somewhat of a danger game for them without Jervis, down against the Magic in Rockingham.

Predicted Finish: 10^th 9 – 17

 

South West Slammers (10^th 6 – 13)

It’s scary to think that a side which has only won 33% of its games for the season is still a mathematical chance of making the finals, but that is where we find the Slammers who – if they can string some late season wins together, could just pull off one of the more unlikely Finals appearances in some time. Massive struggles on the road have been the story of the Slammers season, and it is this form along with limited juniors coming through which could be the real story moving forward if South West were to indeed miss the Finals in 2016

The Slammers Run Home - @ Perry Lakes (Loss); @ Cockburn (Loss); vs Suns (Win); @ Lakeside (Win); vs Redbacks (Loss); @ Mandurah (Win); @ Goldfields (Win)

Only two games down at Eaton left for the Slammers, but with winnable road games against Lakeside, Mandurah & Goldfields – It would mean that this weekend’s game against the Hawks looms as a massive one for South West’s slim finals hopes with the current H2H margin of +5 a huge factor if the Slammers and Hawks were to finish on the same record!

Predicted Finish: 9^th 10 – 16 (Will lose H2H if they lose to Hawks by more than 5 this weekend)

 

Random’s Finals Bracket

 

(QF1) Cockburn vs Perry Lakes – Cougars 2-0

(QF2) Joondalup vs Rockingham – Wolves 2-1

(QF3) Stirling vs Perth – Senators 2-1

(QF4) Geraldton vs Willetton – Buccs 2-1

 

(SF1) Cockburn vs Geraldton – Buccs 2-1

(SF2) Joondalup vs Stirling – Senators 2-1

 

2016 MSBL Grand Final – Stirling Senators vs Geraldton Buccaneers

                                                                                                                                                                       

 

Magic @ Perth (Belmont Oasis 8:30 Fri Night)

Firstly, what an absolute gem of a game winner from Trevor Setty last Saturday night down at the ‘Ham against Lakeside – For anyone who hasn’t seen the video get on to the SBL Facebook account and check it out… It would have to be one of the best Hail Mary’s of all time!! Redbacks heading into this one under several injury clouds, but the same can be said for the Magic and with Mandurah’s less than stellar form on the road in 2016, expect the Spiders to have too much class in this one.

Perth to get the W by 15

 

Hawks @ Stirling (Warwick Stadium 8:30 Fri Night)

Somewhat of a local derby here as the two northern suburbs clubs clash up at the League’s newest venue. Purser to more than likely get the tough job of containing Cody, whilst Lindberg and AJ’s battle with Carlwell inside could be very interesting to say the least!

Should be a lot closer than many would expect, but I still think Stirling’s depth will see them over the line here – Senators to further cement their spot in the Top Four, winning by 7

 

Tigers @ Geraldton (Eighth St Stadium 7:30 Sat Night)

Willo with a decent shot at being the first visiting team to get a W up in the Midwest this season, but the addition of Hussey has definitely made the Buccs a legitimate contender again. The Tigers will not want the Midwest Maniacs to be the sixth man in this one, so expect this to be a low-scoring slugfest if Willo is to have any reasonable chance. If the Buccs hit triple figures, it is hard to see the Tigers matching that scoring output on the road

Gero to remain undefeated at home, defeating the Tigers by 5

 

Lightning @ Goldfields (Kambalda Rec Centre 7:30 Sat Night)

So the Giants annual ‘Kruise to Kambalda’ happens in Week 16 this year as the God Squad head out to the home town of Townsville Fire’s Darcee Garbin, in what is a smart move by Frenchy and co given the Lightning’s very ordinary form away from the Church this season. Lakeside were .56 seconds away from a moral boosting win over the Magic last Saturday night, and it will be very interesting to see how much that heartbreaking loss will play on the minds of the Lightning players on the longest road trip in the League

The two teams with the longest losing streaks in the League, so for one team a bit of relief after a rough middle part of the season for both clubs. Goldfields to make it the unlucky 13 in a row for Lakeside, getting the win at their second home by 7 points

 

Senators @ East Perth (Morley Sport & Rec 8:00 Sat Night)

Stirling on the quick backup as they head for their second ‘derby’ in as many nights, heading down to Morley to take on an East Perth side without Jervis for the rest of the season if my mail is correct. Eagles still a mathematical shot at making the finals, but this game means too much to the Top Four aspirations of the Senators and I expect the result to reflect that fact.

Stirling to make it two from two for the weekend, defeating East Perth by 12 points

 

Flames @ Cockburn (Wally Hagan 8:00 Sat Night)

Yay… I get to be at this place twice in twelve hours after D Clarke thought having U14 WABL games at 8:30 in the morning was a good thing – C’mon mate!! Right where were we, oh preview – Form usually means nothing for these two teams whenever they play each other with A LOT of history between the two clubs, including last season’s memorable Quarter Final series which went the distance in favour of the Flames. Goode has been in sensational form the last few weeks, and the tough task of stopping him will fall to Pal & C Land for Rocko to even have a chance in this one in Hammy Hill

League Leaders at home, sad to say it but I think it will prove too much for my boys from the ‘Ham. Cougars to get the W by 6

 

Wolves @ Kalamunda (Shed in the Sticks 8:30 Sat Night)

Second versus Fourteenth… Expect the reigning champs to put the cue in the rack rather early here with a Sunday afternoon clash against the visiting Eagles up in Joondalup awaiting them. Suns needing to do away with their ‘On for 2 mins, Off for 5’ rotation system and just leave on anyone with a hot hand whilst shooting 50%+ from the floor… And even then I don’t think it will be enough!!

Wolves to get it done predictably easily by 27

 

Slammers @ Perry Lakes (Headquarters 2:00 Sun Arvo) **Game of the Week**

Now I know most of you will say ‘Random you have lost your marbles mate, how is this Game of the Week’ but just stay with me for a second on this one. Perry Lakes have been rather inconsistent this season, and will be on the back end of a double header having played a tough match up at Warwick on Friday night. The Slammers will head into this one knowing even if they lose, if it’s by less than 5 they will take the season H2H over the Hawks and suddenly their Finals chances receive a HUGE boost. All the ingredients for either an upset or a very close contest regardless.

Hawks to get the W in a game which I imagine if it is close to that 5 point margin, could be played out until the final whistle. Perry Lakes by a heartbreaking 6 over the Slammers

 

Eagles @ Joondalup (JBS 2:00 Sun Arvo)

Both teams playing their second game for the weekend here up in South Gero, but whereas I see the Eagles coming off a very tough loss to the visiting Senators on Sat night, I expect the Wolves stars such as KD, Trian & Seb to be well rested after a comfortable win up in Lesmurdie over the Suns. East Perth needing Season High games from Drew & Rhys just to be in the conversation of teams with a hope of winning here.

Wolves to get their second double digit win for the weekend, defeating the visiting Eagles by 19


Article by Travis Young
Photo by Mick Cronin