Round 19 Men's Playoff Implications

With two weeks to go in the regular season, the results from round 19 will have an impact on the playoff chances and standings for most of the top-9 teams.

Let's have a look at this week's games and what the results of those games will do to the ladder leading up to the round 20 next week:

 

Friday 17th July

Slammers (3rd) vs Tigers (6th) at Slammers

The Slammers still have a small chance of overtaking the Geraldton Buccaneers and moving into 2nd position by the end of the regular season. However it would take a small miracle as the Slammers would have to win their remaining 3 games and the Buccs would have to lose their last 2 games. So a win in this game would keep that possibility alive (for 24 hours at least) and a win will also guarantee a top-3 finish. However a loss would end the chances of a top-2 finish and would also keep the Cougars in touch as the Slammers could drop to 4th.

 

The Tigers can finish the season as high as 5th but could also drop as low as 9th and miss the playoffs altogether. The big stat in regards to the result of this game is that a win will guarantee them a playoff spot, irrespective of what happens next week. And it keeps them in the hunt to move up to 5th. A loss in this game combined with some other unfavourable results means that missing the playoffs is still a mathematical possibility.

 

Lightning (12th) vs Wolves (1st) at Lightning

As the Wolves are guaranteed 1st and the Lightning have missed the playoffs altogether, the result of this game will have no impact on the final playoff positions.

 

Magic (8th) vs Flames (5th) at Magic

A huge game for both teams, in particular Mandurah. Interestingly the Magic still have a mathematical chance of finishing 5th, but a lot of things would have to go their way including a win in this game. A Mandurah win still won't guarantee a playoff spot but it certainly will help. Conversely a loss won't necessarily mean they will miss the playoffs, but it will make it a lot harder. With two games to play in this round, we won't really know much more about Mandurah's playoff chances until after their second game.

The Flames cannot drop out of the top-8, that's a given. But they can still finish anywhere from 4th to 8th. A win in this game means they can only finish the regular season in 4th or 5th. A loss will end their top-4 chances and they will finish anywhere from 5th to 8th.

 

Saturday 18th July

Buccaneers (2nd) vs Cougars (4th) at Buccaneers

The Buccs cannot finish any higher than their current 2nd placing, and a win in this game will guarantee 2nd spot, irrespective of next week. But a loss combined with some other unfavourable results will leave them in a position where they could get overtaken by the 3rd-placed Slammers by the end of the regular season.

A Cougars win will guarantee a top-4 finish, and a win is also needed if they want to keep in touch with the 3rd-placed Slammers. A loss will end any chance of moving up to 3rd and will also have them at risk of dropping to 5th.

Giants (7th) vs Eagles (13th) at Giants

A Giants win will guarantee them a playoff spot, and it will also give them a strong chance of moving up to 6th. In addition, and if other results go their way, they have a very small chance of 5th spot. A loss could still see them finish as high as 6th (depending on what happens next week) but it will also mean they could drop to 9th with another loss next week.

The Eagles are out of playoff contention.

 

Hawks (9th) vs Magic (8th) at Hawks

A massive game for the Hawks as a loss will almost end their playoff chances. They would still have a mathematical chance of making it but a lot of things would need to go their way, including the Giants losing their last two games of the year. One certainty is that a Hawks loss in this game and a Giants win over the Eagles will end the playoff chances for the Hawks, guaranteed! A Hawks win however won't necessarily guarantee them a top-8 finish, but it will certainly help. One thing for certain though is that if the Magic lose to the Flames the night before, and the Hawks win this game, the Magic are out of playoff contention and the Hawks are guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

In regards to the Magic, a lot could depend on what happened the night before against the Flames. If they lost that game and then lose this game to the Hawks, they are gone and won't make the playoffs. A win in this game will keep them in touch but will be no guarantee.

 

Senators (11th) vs Redbacks (10th) at Senators

Both teams are out of playoff contention.

 

Eastern Suns (14th) vs Slammers (3rd) at Eastern Suns

The Slammers need to win this game (plus the game the night before) to stay in touch with the 2nd-placed Buccaneers. A loss will end their chances of finishing 2nd and could also leave them vulnerable to the 4th-placed Cougars.

The last-placed Eastern Suns will be playing for pride in what will be their final home game of the year.


Photo by Mick Cronin